an 8-1 favorite heading into tonight's fight against Juan Manuel Marquez in Las Vegas.
LAS VEGAS — It began when Bugsy Siegel dumped his first dice table on the Nevada sand dunes. They gift-wrapped the pleasure palaces that followed until they looked as though Caligula had decorated them in Early Decadence, opened the doors and challenged:
"Beat us if you can."
You may have noticed that the casinos are still standing.
Somewhere in that there is a message.
For those pilgrims inclined toward numerology, it beams down at them from the front wall of the MGM Grand Casino. Manny Pacquiao is a staggering 8-1 favorite to beat Juan Manuel Marquez when they fight here tonight. The House is rarely wrong.
But just as sure as God made little green apples and it don't rain in Vegas in the summertime, those odds will fall a little when the most naïve among the congregation rush forward today to make a killing on the House's "mistake."
After all, this is a city where dreams and hope and faith are the opiate of the tourists. These particular fight odds should be posted with an asterisk that leads to a fine print message below that reads:
"When we say what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, we mean your money."
Be aware that this town has seen them all — every card counter ... every system player ... every roulette wheel note-taker and every oddball slot junkie — who thinks he can outthink a machine that is programmed to take in more money than all of the French Riviera spends on bikinis before it spits out a single quarter.
Still, the House does occasionally lose, although in boxing it hasn't happened here with staggering odds since Mike Tyson, a 20-1 favorite, lost his first fight against Evander Holyfield in this same building 15 years ago.
The question, therefore, is what does Juan Manuel Marquez have to do to win this fight as the long shot among all recent long shots? It's still a fight and it could happen. After all, even Muhammad Ali was indeed a 7-1 long shot when he beat Sonny Liston the first time.
Well, Marquez and his trainer, Nacho Beristain, believe they have the answer. As a result, tonight we will learn whether bigger is better, tougher, meaner or just plain slower. Marquez, a natural lightweight, has bulked up to come in around 142 pounds. You can see it in his chest. You can see it in his biceps.
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